Source: Table 5
Quarantined: Set aside by electoral commission and not counted because of unrealistically high vote per polling place for single candidate
Nonquarantined: Equally disproportionate vote allowed by electoral commission
|Summary of finding|
|The Provisional Electoral Council quarantined 38,337 votes claimed by ruling-party candidate Jude Célestin on grounds of suspiciously high votes for a single candidate per polling place.
Applying the same method to the non-quarantined vote, there are 14,408 more Célestin votes that should have been quarantined.
Below are some examples of the quarantined returns, drawn randomly from the database, followed by a brief explanation of the problems leading them to be disqualified. Then follow examples of the non-quarantined votes that the CEP allowed to be counted in Célestin’s favor. Only the three leading candidates are listed. Finally, we conclude with a global view of the Célestin vote.
1. First return, Centre, Savanette: Pulled by CEP because too many votes for a single candidate (Baker, 238, not listed)
2. Next six returns: Pulled by CEP because too many votes for single candidate (Célestin)
3. Next two returns: Too many votes for single polling place
4. Next return: Too many votes for single candidate (Célestin)
5. Next return: Too many votes for single candidate (Manigat). The return is from the Artibonite, where Sen. Youri Latortue managed her campaign.
6. Next return: Too many votes for single candidate (Célestin)
7. Next two returns: Too many votes for single candidate (Manigat). See note above
8. Next return, Nord, Dondon: Ballot control, too many votes per polling place
9. Next return: Too many votes for single candidate (Manigat)
10. Next return: Too many votes for single candidate (Célestin) and more votes than valid ballots
11. Next return: Ballot control
12. Last two returns: Too many votes for single candidate (Célestin)
Now a sampling of votes let through by the electoral commission bearing the same characteristics as the ones above:
Note: By listing the 227,080 votes Célestin allegedly received in BVs where he received less than 164 votes, the Haiti Democracy Project makes no statement on the validity of these votes.The above charts and graphs are illustrative samples taken from the database Complete.dbf, both the quarantined and non-quarantined sections. A total of 312 polling places were quarantined out of 11,171. An analysis of the entire non-quarantined database indicates that the pattern of disproportion shown above held true down to a cutoff point of 164 votes per polling place, after which it began to flatten out. There are 14,408 Célestin votes in the band that begins with this cutoff point and extends up to the quarantined section, which has 38,337 Célestin votes.
If these 14,408 votes are moved into quarantine, Célestin would move into third place and Michel Martelly, who was stated to be 6,845 votes behind in the preliminary results, would move into second.