Melissa is poised to rapidly strengthen this weekend and become a powerful hurricane as it churns through the Caribbean. The intensifying storm has the potential to unleash feet of rain that can trigger life-threatening flooding and mudslides, high winds that will lead to widespread power outages, and storm surge that may inundate coastal areas from Jamaica this weekend to eastern Cuba into next week.
The abundance of warm water in the Caribbean is a recipe for explosive development. Wind shear (stiff breezes pushing on the storm) was preventing strengthening on Wednesday and Thursday, but is forecast to drop off in Melissa’s path in the coming days, which will allow the storm to intensify.
The AccuWeather RealImpact™ Scale for Hurricanes is 5, or the maximum, for the western Caribbean and 1 for Puerto Rico. This scale, developed by AccuWeather experts, takes into account the risk to lives, property, and economic impacts from the storm, including flooding, rain, storm surge, and high winds. The Saffir-Simpson Scale for Hurricanes only takes into account a storm’s maximum winds.
Landfall as a major hurricane is becoming more likely in Jamaica or at least direct interaction on the island with the storm’s forecast intense eyewall. Catastrophic and life-threatening impacts are anticipated in Jamaica due to flooding, mudslides, storm surge and damaging wind gusts. At this level, roads may be washed away and infrastructure severely damaged, with recovery potentially taking weeks to months.
“The exceptionally warm waters, reaching hundreds of feet deep, will act like jet fuel — providing extra energy for Melissa,” AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. “The warmest water in the Atlantic basin is in the central Caribbean, in the direct path of this storm. Rapid intensification into a Category 5 hurricane is not out of the question this weekend.”
The storm and eventual major hurricane’s slow movement means many hours of torrential rain, intense winds and erosive surf.
“A foot of rainfall or more could cause catastrophic flooding across parts of Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic, depending on the exact track of Melissa,” DaSilva said. “People in the path of this storm need to prepare for the risk of catastrophic impacts.”
Torrential rainfall from Melissa has the potential to lead to life-threatening flooding, mudslides near steep terrain, and even roads and bridges being washed away. Large areas are forecast to receive 12-24 inches of rain, with heavier amounts in some places. The AccuWeather Local StormMax™ total rainfall in Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti is 50 inches. Rainfall of this magnitude will turn small streamlets in steep mountainsides into raging rivers.
Storm surge inundation may be devastating in low-lying areas along the southern coast of Jamaica, with the worst conditions in the bays and flat lands along the coast and where rivers meet the ocean. A widespread storm surge of 6-10 feet is forecast with an AccuWeather StormMax™ surf of 15 feet which is well into the second floor of homes and businesses.
Powerful winds could topple trees, damage buildings and cause widespread power and communication outages. These extreme conditions in Jamaica can occur even if the eye manages to circle around the island rather than cross it.
At peak, tropical storm-force winds will extend 100 miles out from the center. Closer into the center of the storm, the AccuWeather Local StormMax™ wind gust for land areas in Jamaica is 165 mph, or that of a solid Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. At this intensity, catastrophic wind damage can occur. Stronger gusts are likely offshore.
Mountainous waves generated by the wind intensity can damage or sink even large vessels.
Beyond Jamaica, the outer fringes of the Melissa have already been producing downpours and gusty thunderstorms from eastern Cuba to Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. These will continue in the coming days. As of midday Friday up to a foot of rain has fallen along the southern coast of Hispaniola with major flooding in some areas. As more rain pours down into next week, the situation will get worse with catastrophic loss possible.
After Melissa turns north and tracks over the western Caribbean, the next land mass in its path after Jamaica is Cuba.
Melissa is likely to make landfall in the eastern part of Cuba early next week as a major hurricane.
The same effects anticipated in Jamaica have the potential to occur in Cuba, ranging from torrential rain, flash flooding and mudslides to destructive winds and storm surge. All of these will pose a high to extreme risk to lives and property.
Beyond Cuba, Melissa is forecast to track north to northeast later next week. This may bring another round of heavy rain, but with strong winds after a lull to Hispaniola and perhaps Puerto Rico. Depending on the track, significant impacts may also extend into parts of the Bahamas. Eventually Melissa could come close enough to Bermuda to bring impacts as well.
“The timing and strength of a dip in the jet stream over the eastern United States next week will help determine the path that Melissa takes through the northern Caribbean and into the southwestern Atlantic,” DaSilva said. “At this time, the odds of ‘direct’ rain and wind impacts from Melissa reaching the U.S. East Coast are low. However, there are scenarios that could bring Melissa close to South Florida.” Farther out, there is a moderate risk of Melissa hooking westward toward Atlantic Canada.
The farther west Melissa moves in the Caribbean, the closer it could eventually move toward the U.S. and significant indirect impacts are anticipated along the East Coast with assistance of the jet stream and a non-tropical storm from the last days of October to the first days of November.
There is no risk to Melissa making landfall from the Florida Panhandle, westward through Texas.