Haiti Action.net – Port au Prince, Haiti — There is only a 20 percent chance that Hurricane DANIELLE will head more towards Haiti as a “major hurricane” according to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, Florida. However, with those odds the “interests” in Haiti will be keeping a close watch on the hurricane this week. The 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season is still expected to be above average, even though the first couple of months have been relatively quiet with only one other tropical storm — ALEX — reaching hurricane strength in June.
A second weather system is quickly developing into a tropical depression and could develop into a Cape Verde Hurricane — EARL — if the forward progress of the storm slows slightly and stays closer to 10º N than Storm Danielle did over the last week. The vertical shear to the north, that caused DANIELLE to take a more westerly heading over the last 24 hours could have this effect on the new system.
Meanwhile, DANIELLE has been changing direction and confusing the pundits, like some Haitian presidential vagabonds over the last couple of days, but almost all prediction models show that the “vertical shear over the system”will relax a bit and allow the hurricane to reach no more than a Category 2 as it turns more to the north towards Bermuda. If the hurricane wanders again and is still south of the Mid-Atlantic Weather Buoy — 350 miles to the west — tomorrow, then there is likely to be some divergence in the various models and forecasts. If it heads in that region the intensity forecast changes dramatically and Danielle is likely to become a dangerous Category 4 hurricane in the next 72 hours.
RAW